아인슈타인은 선박으로 운반하여 항구에서 폭발시켜 항구 전체와 주변 지역을 완전히 파괴할 수 있는 “초강력 폭탄”이 만들어질 수 있다고 경고했다. 그가 긴급조치를 촉구함에 따라 맨해튼 계획이 세워졌고 로스앨러모스국립연구소가 창설되어 핵폭탄 개발이 시작됐다.
그후 70여 년이 지나 불량국가와 민간단체 및 개인이 벌이는 테러의 시대를 맞은 지금 경각심을 가져야 할 이유가 그때 못지않다. 밀반입된 핵장치를 폭발시키는 핵 테러는 가능성과 개연성이 모두 높은 것으로 널리 인식되고 있다.
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| 데이비드 B 월러 국제원자력기구 前 사무차장 |
미국의 대도시에서 방사능 혹은 핵 테러가 단 한 차례만 발생해도 아인슈타인이 예고한 것보다 훨씬 심각한 결과를 초래할 수 있다. 차르나에프 형제가 폭발장치로 압력솥을 사용하지 않고 “더러운 폭탄”인 방사능 확산 장치를 이용했을 경우의 파괴적 결과를 생각해보라.
뿐만 아니라 작년 가을에 닥친 초강력 태풍 샌디는, 충분한 예견과 추적을 통해 민관이 합심하여 대대적인 예방조치를 취했는데도 엄청난 규모의 피해를 입힐 수 있다는 것을 미국인들에게 생생하게 상기시켰다.
그와는 대조적으로 테러분자의 핵무기 폭발은 예고 없이 일어날 가능성이 크고 시민들이 대피할 기회도 없다. 인명 손실과 고통 및 무력감, 경제적 파괴, 사회질서의 붕괴는 재앙적인 규모에 이를 것이다. 핵 테러의 피해는, 보스턴 마라톤의 폭탄 테러나 샌디의 파괴를 어린이 장난처럼 보이게 만들 것이다. 이런 핵 테러 위협에 대한 미국의 최대 약점이 아직도, 아인슈타인이 언급한 항구라는 사실은 역설적이다. 미국의 수많은 항구를 통해 매년 수백만 개의 화물 컨테이너와 다른 운반 장비가 들어오고 있다. 미 의회의 일부 의원들이 지적한 바와 같이 “화물 컨테이너는 테러분자들이 미국을 공격하여 파괴하는 데 이용할 수 있는 트로이목마다.”
하버드 대학교 안보분석가인 그레이엄 앨리슨의 지적처럼 핵 공격은 “미사일에 장착된 핵탄두보다는 화물 컨테이너 속에 숨겨진 핵폭탄에 의해 가해질 가능성이 훨씬 높다.”
핵 테러에 대한 9·11 위원회의 심각한 우려에 따라 6년 전 제정된 연방법률은 미국행 화물을 선적에 앞서 모두 검사하도록 의무화했다. 이 지침의 시행 개시 시한은 2012년이었으나 불행히도 국토안보부가 시행을 2년 늦추었다. 시행 지연 이유는, 물류의 흐름을 방해하지 않고 인체에 무해하며 정확하고 비용이 낮은 핵물질 검사기술이 존재하지 않는다는 것이었다.
그러나 현재 이 문제는 해결된 상태다. 이 기술은 현재 중립기관의 성능검사를 거쳐 주요 항구에 배치되어 성공적으로 작동되고 있다. 자연적으로 존재하는 무해한 우주 입자를 추적하는 뮤온 단층촬영 기술에 바탕을 둔 이 혁명적인 검사체제가, 아인슈타인이 시작한 역사적 과제를 마무리 지을 수 있게 되었다.
불법적으로 사용되는 방사능 물질과 핵무기의 위협을 감안할 대 국가 지도자들은 항구와 국경 검문소 및 주요 인프라 시설에 대한 핵 테러 예방을 위해 모든 수단과 방법을 사용할 필요가 있다.
데이비드 B 월러 국제원자력기구 前 사무차장
워싱턴타임스·정리=오성환 외신전문위원
Nuclear terrorism and Einstein's arc of history
By Stuart J. Rabin and David B. Waller
Albert Einstein's historic August 1939 letter to President Franklin D. Roosevelt warned that Nazi Germany was likely to exploit scientific discoveries that could initiate "a nuclear chain reaction in a large mass of uranium, by which vast amounts of power" would be generated. Einstein ominously warned of "extremely powerful bombs" that might be "carried by a boat and exploded in a port" and that could "destroy the whole port together with some of the surrounding territory." His call for urgent action led, of course, to the Manhattan Project, the creation of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and development of the atomic bomb.
Now, more than seven decades on - in this age of terrorism by rogue and non-state actors - we have no less cause for alarm.
Nuclear terrorism - by the detonation of a nuclear device smuggled into our country - is widely recognized to be not only plausible, but also probable. Security experts warn that there is more than sufficient unaccounted for fissile material to construct numerous devices. Presidents Obama and George W. Bush both have warned of the attempts by terrorist groups to acquire nuclear components.
The consequences of even a single act of radiological or nuclear terrorism in a major American city could be far worse than predicted in Einstein's prescient letter. Consider the crushing impact had the Tsarnaev brothers utilized not a pressure cooker as an explosive device, but instead a radiation-dispersal device ("dirty bomb"). Moreover, last fall's Superstorm Sandy so vividly reminded us of the massive destruction that can be dealt - even under circumstances where the threat is well-anticipated and tracked, and responsible citizenry, together with relevant federal, state and local authorities have taken extensive precautionary measures. A terrorist detonation of a nuclear weapon, in stark contrast, would likely come without warning and with no opportunity to prepare or evacuate. The loss of life, incalculable human suffering, sense of vulnerability, economic devastation and breakdown in social order would be nothing short of catastrophic. It could make the Boston Marathon bombing and even Sandy's devastation look like child's play.
Ironically, our greatest vulnerability to these threats remains through the same maritime shipping ports of which Einstein wrote - through which millions of cargo containers or other conveyances enter our nation each year. As three members of Congress wrote: "Cargo containers arriving on ships from foreign ports offer terrorists a Trojan horse for a devastating attack on the United States." Quoting Harvard University national-security analyst Graham Allison, they noted that a nuclear attack "is far more likely to arrive in a cargo container than on the tip of a missile." Underscoring this threat, Vice President Joe Biden warned this year's graduates of the Coast Guard Academy - the newly minted protectors of our shores - that they enter a world filled with stateless actors harboring a desire "to smuggle weapons of terror into American ports in the belly of cargo containers to do our people great harm."
Responding to the 9/11 Commission's grave concerns regarding such threats, a federal law passed six years ago mandated that before being loaded onto ships, all cargo bound for the United States be scanned. Unfortunately, the 2012 deadline for enforcement of this directive was not met, and was deferred for two years by the Department of Homeland Security. The stated reason was the absence of technology that could - without slowing the flow of commerce or raising health concerns - accurately and economically detect heavily shielded, as well as unshielded, nuclear material.
But, in fact, a solution is now at hand. Seventy-four years after Einstein's letter, transformational American technology is now capable of providing a much-needed safeguard against misuse of the forces our forebears unleashed. With striking historical symmetry, research initiated by modern-day physicists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and further developed by private industry has resulted in a passive detection system that meets all the requirements of safety, reliability, speed and cost. Moreover, it has now been independently tested, operationally deployed, and successfully demonstrated at a major port. This revolutionary system, based on muon tomography - the tracking of naturally existing, harmless cosmic particles - can finally bring us closer to the end of the arc of history initiated by Einstein.
Our government's most fundamental responsibility is, of course, to protect its citizens, our freedom and our way of life. Given the threat of the illicit use of radiological materials and nuclear weapons, our leaders must redouble efforts to aggressively embrace and facilitate the deployment of all available preventative measures - at maritime ports, border crossings and other critical infrastructure. We must take all reasonable steps to address the 9/11 Commission's concerns, to meet the existing federal mandate, and thereby avoid what Mr. Allison has called the "ultimate preventable catastrophe." Time is not on our side.
By Stuart J. Rabin and David B. Waller
Albert Einstein's historic August 1939 letter to President Franklin D. Roosevelt warned that Nazi Germany was likely to exploit scientific discoveries that could initiate "a nuclear chain reaction in a large mass of uranium, by which vast amounts of power" would be generated. Einstein ominously warned of "extremely powerful bombs" that might be "carried by a boat and exploded in a port" and that could "destroy the whole port together with some of the surrounding territory." His call for urgent action led, of course, to the Manhattan Project, the creation of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and development of the atomic bomb.
Now, more than seven decades on - in this age of terrorism by rogue and non-state actors - we have no less cause for alarm.
Nuclear terrorism - by the detonation of a nuclear device smuggled into our country - is widely recognized to be not only plausible, but also probable. Security experts warn that there is more than sufficient unaccounted for fissile material to construct numerous devices. Presidents Obama and George W. Bush both have warned of the attempts by terrorist groups to acquire nuclear components.
The consequences of even a single act of radiological or nuclear terrorism in a major American city could be far worse than predicted in Einstein's prescient letter. Consider the crushing impact had the Tsarnaev brothers utilized not a pressure cooker as an explosive device, but instead a radiation-dispersal device ("dirty bomb"). Moreover, last fall's Superstorm Sandy so vividly reminded us of the massive destruction that can be dealt - even under circumstances where the threat is well-anticipated and tracked, and responsible citizenry, together with relevant federal, state and local authorities have taken extensive precautionary measures. A terrorist detonation of a nuclear weapon, in stark contrast, would likely come without warning and with no opportunity to prepare or evacuate. The loss of life, incalculable human suffering, sense of vulnerability, economic devastation and breakdown in social order would be nothing short of catastrophic. It could make the Boston Marathon bombing and even Sandy's devastation look like child's play.
Ironically, our greatest vulnerability to these threats remains through the same maritime shipping ports of which Einstein wrote - through which millions of cargo containers or other conveyances enter our nation each year. As three members of Congress wrote: "Cargo containers arriving on ships from foreign ports offer terrorists a Trojan horse for a devastating attack on the United States." Quoting Harvard University national-security analyst Graham Allison, they noted that a nuclear attack "is far more likely to arrive in a cargo container than on the tip of a missile." Underscoring this threat, Vice President Joe Biden warned this year's graduates of the Coast Guard Academy - the newly minted protectors of our shores - that they enter a world filled with stateless actors harboring a desire "to smuggle weapons of terror into American ports in the belly of cargo containers to do our people great harm."
Responding to the 9/11 Commission's grave concerns regarding such threats, a federal law passed six years ago mandated that before being loaded onto ships, all cargo bound for the United States be scanned. Unfortunately, the 2012 deadline for enforcement of this directive was not met, and was deferred for two years by the Department of Homeland Security. The stated reason was the absence of technology that could - without slowing the flow of commerce or raising health concerns - accurately and economically detect heavily shielded, as well as unshielded, nuclear material.
But, in fact, a solution is now at hand. Seventy-four years after Einstein's letter, transformational American technology is now capable of providing a much-needed safeguard against misuse of the forces our forebears unleashed. With striking historical symmetry, research initiated by modern-day physicists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and further developed by private industry has resulted in a passive detection system that meets all the requirements of safety, reliability, speed and cost. Moreover, it has now been independently tested, operationally deployed, and successfully demonstrated at a major port. This revolutionary system, based on muon tomography - the tracking of naturally existing, harmless cosmic particles - can finally bring us closer to the end of the arc of history initiated by Einstein.
Our government's most fundamental responsibility is, of course, to protect its citizens, our freedom and our way of life. Given the threat of the illicit use of radiological materials and nuclear weapons, our leaders must redouble efforts to aggressively embrace and facilitate the deployment of all available preventative measures - at maritime ports, border crossings and other critical infrastructure. We must take all reasonable steps to address the 9/11 Commission's concerns, to meet the existing federal mandate, and thereby avoid what Mr. Allison has called the "ultimate preventable catastrophe." Time is not on our side.
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